I’ve been selling homes in the Denver metro for over 20 years, and I can say without hedging: this is one of the more confusing markets I’ve seen. Not because anything catastrophic is happening, but because the signals are mixed enough that both optimists and pessimists can find data to support their case.
So let me walk through what’s actually going on in Denver’s luxury segment right now, what the numbers say, and what I’d tell you if you were sitting across from me at my office in Greenwood Village.
Where luxury prices actually stand right now
Let’s start with the headline number. According to First American Data & Analytics, the luxury tier (top third of home prices) in the Denver metro is down about 2.3% year over year. That sounds bad until you compare it to the rest of the market: starter homes are off 6%, and mid-tier properties have dropped 4.3%.
The Denver metro as a whole saw a 4.5% decline in single-family home prices, which was the second-largest drop among the 30 metro areas First American tracks. Only Oakland, California was worse.
But here’s the thing about luxury: it doesn’t move in lockstep with the broader market. Never has. The buyers in the $1.5M-and-up range aren’t first-time purchasers scraping together a down payment. They’re executives, business owners, and investors who often buy with significant equity from a previous sale. That insulates the upper end from the affordability squeeze that’s hammering the entry-level market.
In neighborhoods I work in regularly, like Cherry Hills Village, the median sale price is sitting around $2.45 million as of early 2026. Greenwood Village is more varied because the housing stock ranges from 1970s ranch homes to new construction, but the luxury segment there is trading in the $1.2M-$2M range.
Inventory is the story, and it cuts both ways
The Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) reported 8,988 homes and condos available for sale at the end of February 2026. That’s a near-record for this time of year. New listings rose 12.1% month-over-month, and overall inventory was up 9.2%.
For luxury buyers, more inventory means more choice and more room to negotiate. I’ve been in this business long enough to remember when a $2M listing in Cherry Hills would have three offers within a week. That’s not the market we’re in right now, and frankly, that’s fine.
Here’s how the luxury inventory breaks down by price tier, based on DMAR’s January and February reports:
Detached homes, $1M-$1.5M: About 4 months of inventory. This is close to a balanced market (6 months is the traditional benchmark). Homes here are moving reasonably well, especially if they’re priced correctly and in good condition.
Detached homes above $1.5M: Around 7.8 months of inventory. This is buyer’s territory. If you’re shopping at this level, you have time and leverage.
Attached luxury (condos/townhomes) $1M-$2M: Nearly 8 months of inventory. These are the hardest sells right now, partly because of rising HOA fees driven by insurance premiums.
Attached luxury above $2M: A staggering 26 months of supply. That’s more than two years of inventory. If you own a luxury condo in this range and you’re thinking about selling, we need to talk about pricing strategy before you do anything else.
The split between detached and attached luxury tells you a lot about what buyers want. At the $1M+ level, people want land, privacy, and a single-family home. Condos and townhomes, even nice ones, are a tougher sell when you’re spending seven figures.
Mortgage rates dropped below 6%, and buyers noticed
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 5.87% in early March 2026, according to CBS News and Freddie Mac data. That’s the first time rates have been below 6% in roughly three and a half years.
Now, does this matter for luxury buyers? More than you might think. Yes, some buyers at the $2M+ level pay cash. But the majority of buyers in the $1M-$2M range use financing, often jumbo loans. A drop from 6.5% to 5.87% on a $1.2M mortgage saves roughly $460 per month. Over 30 years, that’s about $165,000.
The rate drop had an immediate effect. DMAR’s February report showed pending sales up 29.2% from January and 15.3% above February 2025 levels. Median days on market fell from 53 in January to 33 in February, a 37.7% improvement.
Amanda Snitker, chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee, put it simply: “Buyers who entered the market early this year have benefited from softer pricing and lower mortgage rates.”
Multiple offers have returned for well-priced properties in desirable locations. But “well-priced” is the key phrase there. Overpriced listings are still sitting, and buyers in 2026 are not afraid to walk away.
What’s happening in south Denver’s luxury communities
I specialize in the south Denver corridor, from Cherry Hills Village and Greenwood Village down through Castle Pines and Centennial. Each of these cities has its own micromarket, and the trends aren’t identical.
Cherry Hills Village remains the most expensive residential market in the Denver metro. The median sale price is around $2.45M, with the average closer to $2.8M because a handful of ultra-luxury sales above $5M pull it up. Inventory has grown here but not dramatically. The buyer pool at this price point is small and specific: families who want acreage, mature trees, and proximity to Kent Denver or Cherry Hills Village Elementary. Properties that check all those boxes still sell within a reasonable timeframe.
Greenwood Village has a wider range. You can find homes from $700K to $4M depending on the neighborhood. The Preserve and other newer developments are holding value well. Older inventory that hasn’t been updated is where I’m seeing the most price adjustments. If you bought a 1990s home in GV and haven’t renovated the kitchen or bathrooms, expect to compete on price with newer construction nearby.
Castle Pines has a different buyer profile. It draws people who want the golf-club lifestyle, larger lots, and don’t mind being farther from downtown. I wrote about this in my Castle Pines luxury homes guide. The $1M-$1.5M range in Castle Pines is quite active right now. Above that, it slows down.
Centennial isn’t typically thought of as “luxury,” but the city has pockets above $1M, especially near Cherry Creek State Park and in the Southglenn area. I’m seeing more first-time luxury buyers here, people moving up from a $600K home into the $900K-$1.2M range. The lower entry point makes it accessible, and the schools are strong.
For broader context on relocating to this part of the metro, I wrote a guide on relocating to South Denver for families that covers schools, commutes, and the differences between these communities.
Why the luxury segment is outperforming
Three reasons, and they’re all structural rather than cyclical.
First, equity. Luxury buyers usually have substantial equity from a previous home sale. When you’re rolling $800K in equity into your next purchase, higher mortgage rates hurt less. You might finance $700K on a $1.5M home. Compare that to a first-time buyer trying to finance 90% of a $500K home. The math is fundamentally different.
Second, demographics. Denver continues to attract high-income transplants from the coasts. The tech sector, despite some pullback, still has well-compensated remote workers who chose Colorado for the lifestyle and aren’t leaving. I’ve worked with multiple families in the last year who sold a home in the Bay Area or Seattle and moved to Cherry Hills or Greenwood Village with cash to spare.
Third, limited supply at the top. There are only so many homes on half-acre lots with mountain views within 20 minutes of the Denver Tech Center. You can’t build more of them. When demand eventually picks up, and it will as rates continue to fall, the luxury detached segment will tighten faster than anyone expects.
That said, I want to be honest: luxury condos and townhomes are a different story. Rising insurance premiums have pushed HOA fees up significantly across the Denver metro, and that’s made attached properties less attractive at every price point. The 26 months of inventory in the $2M+ attached segment tells you everything you need to know. If you’re a condo seller at that level, you’re competing against a lot of supply, and buyers have options.
What this means if you’re buying or selling in 2026
For buyers in the $1M-$1.5M range: You’re in the sweet spot. Inventory is balanced, rates are the lowest they’ve been since mid-2022, and sellers are negotiating on price and concessions. The close-to-list ratio has dropped to 97.9%, which means buyers are paying about 2% below asking on average. I’d recommend getting pre-approved for a jumbo loan now. The rate environment could shift if geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher, which would reverse some of the recent mortgage rate declines.
For buyers above $1.5M: You have time and leverage. With nearly 8 months of inventory in the detached segment, there’s no reason to rush. Tour extensively, negotiate firmly, and don’t be afraid to make offers below asking. I tell my clients in this range: the right home is worth waiting for, and in this market, you can be selective without losing opportunities.
For sellers of detached luxury homes: Price realistically from day one. The days of testing the market with an aspirational price are over. Homes that are priced correctly, in excellent condition, and well-marketed are still selling within a month or two. Homes that are overpriced by even 5% are sitting for 90+ days and then selling after one or more price reductions. That pattern costs you money and creates a stale listing impression.
For sellers of luxury condos and townhomes: This is the toughest segment in the Denver market right now. Consider whether this is the right time to sell, and if it is, price aggressively and invest in staging and professional photography. You need to stand out against deep inventory.
If you’re not sure where you fit in this market, I offer a no-pressure consultation. You can reach out to me directly, and I’ll give you an honest assessment based on your specific situation and property.
Looking ahead: what I expect for the rest of 2026
I don’t have a crystal ball, and I’m skeptical of anyone who claims they do. But based on the data and my read of the market, here’s what I think happens through the rest of 2026.
Mortgage rates will probably hover in the 5.5%-6.5% range unless something unexpected happens with inflation or the geopolitical situation. The Freddie Mac survey showed 5.87% as of early March. Bankrate reports the first-two-months average at 6.18%. The trend is downward, but don’t expect rates to return to 3%. That era is over.
Luxury prices in the detached segment will likely flatten or decline another 1-2% through the summer before stabilizing in the fall. I don’t see a sharp rebound because inventory is too high for that. But I also don’t see a crash. The fundamentals in south Denver, schools, employment, lifestyle, quality of housing stock, are too strong for prices to fall significantly.
The attached luxury market will continue to struggle until HOA fees stabilize. That’s an insurance-industry problem more than a real estate problem, and it’s not getting resolved quickly.
Spring will bring more listings and more buyers. February’s data already showed that pattern accelerating. If you’re planning to sell, getting your home on the market by mid-April gives you the best chance of catching the spring wave.
For buyers considering Cherry Hills Village or the broader south Denver luxury market, I’d recommend reading the South Denver Guide for neighborhood-level detail and market reports.
The bottom line: this is a market that rewards preparation, realistic pricing, and patience. The people who will do best in 2026, whether buying or selling, are the ones who understand the data and act on it rather than waiting for some imaginary “perfect” moment.
If you have questions about Denver’s luxury market or want to discuss your specific situation, contact me here. I’ve been doing this for over two decades, and I’m happy to share what I know.
Frequently asked questions
Are Denver luxury home prices going down in 2026?
Yes, but only slightly. The luxury tier (top third of home prices) is down about 2.3% year over year according to First American Data & Analytics. This is significantly less than the 6% decline in starter homes and 4.3% drop in mid-tier properties. Detached luxury homes between $1M and $1.5M are in near-balanced market conditions at 4 months of inventory.
Is now a good time to buy a luxury home in Denver?
For many buyers, yes. Mortgage rates are at their lowest point since mid-2022 (around 5.87% as of early March 2026), inventory is the highest it’s been in years, and sellers are negotiating on price. The close-to-list ratio has dropped to 97.9%, meaning most buyers are paying below asking price. Buyers in the $1.5M+ range have particular leverage with nearly 8 months of inventory available.
What areas of Denver have the best luxury home values right now?
The south Denver corridor offers strong value across different price points. Cherry Hills Village (median around $2.45M) is the premier market for estate-style homes. Greenwood Village offers variety from $700K to $4M. Castle Pines is active in the $1M-$1.5M range with a golf-club lifestyle. The $1M-$1.5M detached segment across the metro has the most balanced conditions and is seeing healthy buyer activity.
How long does it take to sell a luxury home in Denver?
It depends on price tier and property type. Well-priced detached homes in the $1M-$1.5M range are selling within 30-60 days. Above $1.5M, expect longer timelines as inventory is deeper (7-8 months of supply). Luxury condos and townhomes face the toughest conditions, with 8-26 months of inventory depending on price. Correct pricing from day one is the single most important factor.
What mortgage rates are available for luxury homes in Denver?
As of March 2026, the average 30-year fixed rate is approximately 5.87%, with jumbo loan rates (for amounts above the conforming limit of $766,550 in the Denver metro) typically running 0.25-0.50% higher. The 30-year average has been trending down from over 7% in late 2023. A drop from 6.5% to 5.87% on a $1.2M mortgage saves about $460 per month.
Sara Garza is a licensed luxury real estate agent specializing in South Denver and Cherry Hills Village. With expertise in the Denver Metro luxury market, Sara helps buyers and sellers navigate high-end real estate transactions with confidence. Whether you are buying a home over $1 million or selling a luxury estate, Sara provides personalized guidance and market expertise.